Pair #12683

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18458

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 252

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top20 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0151 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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