Pair #12682

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1516

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 252

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MTHO/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MTHO] [structural reuse of KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top10 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0119 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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