Pair #12681

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 252

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-PHAR

Padraig Harrington to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1264

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS] Captaincy appointment and tournament finish are unrelated.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0102 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -69.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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