Pair #12680

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 773

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-PHAR

Padraig Harrington to be the Europe Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1264

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington is the Europe Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027EUR-JROS] Finishing top5 at The Open has no necessary link to being Ryder Cup captain.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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