Pair #12678

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2548

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-KBRA

Keegan Bradley to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 786

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-TWOO/KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-TWOO] Captaincy and leading a round are unrelated; no necessity either way.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0990 + ~$0.0064 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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