Pair #12676

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JDEA

The Open Championship: Will Joe Dean finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joe Dean
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 370

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joe Dean finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JDEA

The Open Championship: Will Joe Dean finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joe Dean
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3916

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joe Dean finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -72.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0053 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -76.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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