Pair #12671

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-APOT

The Open Championship: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1611

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-APOT

The Open Championship: Will Aldrich Potgieter make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 622

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400 + ~$0.0222 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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