Pair #12665

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-COPC26-KYU

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Kevin Yu finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 580

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-COPC26-KYU

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Kevin Yu finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 694

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300 + ~$0.0285 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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