Pair #12662

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-COPC26-AWIS

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Aaron Wise finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Wise
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 218

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Wise finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-COPC26-AWIS

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Aaron Wise finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Wise
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 311

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Wise finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.05% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0161 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -91.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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