Pair #12661

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-COPC26-AWIS

Will Aaron Wise lead at the end of Round 1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aaron Wise
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 623

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Wise is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-COPC26-AWIS

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Aaron Wise finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Wise
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 218

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Wise finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -86.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0070 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -90.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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