Pair #12641

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-COPC26-PNYH

Will Pontus Nyholm lead at the end of Round 1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1247

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-COPC26-PNYH

Will Pontus Nyholm win the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-07-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2658

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm wins the Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -20.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -24.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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