Pair #12637

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-COPC26-BMAR

Will Ben Martin win the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Martin
Expiration: 2026-07-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6295

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ben Martin wins the Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-COPC26-BMAR

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Ben Martin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Martin
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 586

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ben Martin finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.86% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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