Pair #12631

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-COPC26-SJAE

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 994

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-COPC26-SJAE

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-07-18T10:00:00Z
Volume: 318

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger has made the cut at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0283 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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