Pair #12630

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-COPC26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3165

YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9810
Last: 0.0230

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-COPC26-SJAE

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 994

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3710 + ~$0.0180 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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