Pair #12626

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-COPC26-MHUG

Will Mackenzie Hughes lead at the end of Round 1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 451

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-COPC26-MHUG

Will Mackenzie Hughes win the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-07-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8909

YES ask: 0.0370
NO ask: 0.9710
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes wins the Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -56.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0370 + ~$0.0025 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -60.70% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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