Pair #12622

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-COPC26-JDAH

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 338

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-COPC26-JDAH

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 485

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0183 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue