Pair #12621

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-COPC26-JDAH

Will Joel Dahmen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 825

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joel Dahmen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-COPC26-JDAH

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 338

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1360 + ~$0.0087 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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