Pair #12618

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-COPC26-JDAH

Will Joel Dahmen win the Corales Puntacana Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-07-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4708

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen wins the Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-COPC26-JDAH

Corales Puntacana Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z
Volume: 485

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2370 + ~$0.0140 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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