Pair #1260

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 625

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20009

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:55Z

Reasoning: A top 10 overall finish does not require a top 5 in R1, and a top 5 in R1 does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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