Pair #12599

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7853

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1410 + ~$0.0095 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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