Pair #12598

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 397

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7853

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.4500 + ~$0.0179 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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