Pair #12595

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 412792

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 397

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5750 + ~$0.0174 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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