Pair #12592

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4479

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MTHO

The Open Championship: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 397

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0255 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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