Pair #12591

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-VPER

The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1814

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-VPER

The Open Championship: Will Victor Perez finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Victor Perez finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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