Pair #12585

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JKEE

Will John Keefer win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 585495

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JKEE

The Open Championship: Will John Keefer finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1856

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If John Keefer finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0270 + ~$0.0022 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -97.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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