Pair #1257

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 844

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:55Z

Reasoning: Winning a major is completely independent of performance in Round 1 of the Valspar Championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -29.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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