Pair #12568

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MWAL

Will Matt Wallace win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 501666

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2746

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0850 + ~$0.0061 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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