Pair #12566

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MAW

Will Matt Wallace lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 290

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MWAL

Will Matt Wallace win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 501666

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -11.09% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0050 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -15.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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