Pair #12565

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2746

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17653

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0149 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -96.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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