Pair #12563

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2746

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 700

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400 + ~$0.0212 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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