Pair #12562

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MWAL

The Open Championship: Will Matt Wallace make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 700

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MAW

Will Matt Wallace lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 290

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.4180 + ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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