Pair #12558

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-DPUI

The Open Championship: Will David Puig finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4818

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Puig finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-DPUI

The Open Championship: Will David Puig make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Puig
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2078

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Puig has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900 + ~$0.0220 est. fees
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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