Pair #12553

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2060

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 811

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300 + ~$0.0103 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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