Pair #12546

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 811

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-KMIT

The Open Championship: Will Keith Mitchell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 279

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0254 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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