Pair #1254

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1568

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 844

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:55Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not require finishing top 10 in R1, and finishing top 10 in R1 does not guarantee making the cut (could collapse in R2).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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