Pair #1253

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20009

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1568

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:55Z

Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 overall, he must have made the cut to play the weekend rounds. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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