Pair #12527

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RHIS

The Open Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 494

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RHIS

The Open Championship: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 352

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200 + ~$0.0248 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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