Pair #12526

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-NECH

Will Nicolas Echavarria win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 153520

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nicolas Echavarria wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-NECH

The Open Championship: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1655

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Nicolas Echavarria finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1190 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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