Pair #12524

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-NECH

The Open Championship: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1655

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolas Echavarria finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-NECH

The Open Championship: Will Nicolas Echavarria make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1002

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolas Echavarria has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0244 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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