Pair #1252

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1568

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:55Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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