Pair #12512

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ECOL

The Open Championship: Will Eric Cole finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3104

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-ECOL

The Open Championship: Will Eric Cole make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Eric Cole
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 292

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Eric Cole has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300 + ~$0.0256 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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