Pair #12511

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BWIE

The Open Championship: Will Bernd Wiesberger finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bernd Wiesberger
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1209

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bernd Wiesberger finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BWIE

The Open Championship: Will Bernd Wiesberger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bernd Wiesberger
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1219

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bernd Wiesberger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -73.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0078 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -77.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue