Pair #12506

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ASUL

The Open Championship: Will Andy Sullivan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2702

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-ASUL

The Open Championship: Will Andy Sullivan make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 573

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0221 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue