Pair #12505

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ASUL

The Open Championship: Will Andy Sullivan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2245

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ASUL

The Open Championship: Will Andy Sullivan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2702

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -77.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0071 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -82.05% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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