Pair #1250

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 844

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7768

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:55Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require being top 10 after Round 1 (could have a bad R1 then great R2), and being top 10 in R1 does not mean leading after R2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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