Pair #12499

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-ASUL

Will Andy Sullivan lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7617

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ASUL

The Open Championship: Will Andy Sullivan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2245

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -58.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0390 + ~$0.0028 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -62.68% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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