Pair #12495

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-HDUP

Will Hennie Du Plessis win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hennie Du Plessis
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 114299

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hennie Du Plessis wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-HDUP

The Open Championship: Will Hennie Du Plessis finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hennie Du Plessis
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1421

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hennie Du Plessis finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.61% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0390 + ~$0.0028 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.84% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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