Pair #12493

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-HDUP

Will Hennie Du Plessis lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hennie Du Plessis
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hennie Du Plessis is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-HDUP

The Open Championship: Will Hennie Du Plessis finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hennie Du Plessis
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1421

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hennie Du Plessis finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -55.14% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0350 + ~$0.0030 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -59.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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