Pair #12487

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MAS

Will Matthew Southgate lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matthew Southgate
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 400

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Southgate is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MSOU

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Southgate finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew Southgate
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1888

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Southgate finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -59.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -63.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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