Pair #12484

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-BSKO

Will Baard Bjoernevik Skogen win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Baard Bjoernevik Skogen
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1953

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Baard Bjoernevik Skogen wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BSKO

The Open Championship: Will Baard Bjoernevik Skogen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Baard Bjoernevik Skogen
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 307

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Baard Bjoernevik Skogen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -85.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -89.71% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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